Macro Trading the Carry Trade
Macro traders trade virtually everything. They trade stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies looking for uncorrelated trade ideas with great risk to reward characteristics. Sometimes they will even venture into markets like real estate and even art.
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
Macro traders have one strategy that most traders never use and that is the currency markets. Long the playground of only banks, currency trading is now available to the masses and is getting better and better. One of the best strategies in currency trading is that of the carry trade.
The carry trade consists of going long a high yielding currency and going short a low yielding currency to fund the trade. You make money in two ways. One is if the initial trade is profitable if the higher yielding currency goes up relative to the low yielder. The other way to earn money is to make money off the carry, or the interest rate differential.
Using leverage you can really juice your returns in the carry trade. For instance if you are earning a three percent yield from the differential then you can earn thirty by being levered up ten times. If you lever up twenty times you will earn sixty percent. While these gains sound great they do come with great risk. You knew this couldn't be that easy.
Nope, simply put juicing things on the way up will kill you on the way down. If volatility is anything but low you will get killed with excessive leverage. Instead you need a good way to track volatility and measure when is a good and a bad time to be in the carry trade.
There are a gazillion ways to measure volatility but some of the best ones are by using an actual volatility index. We have the VIX on the SP500 which is a surprisingly good measure of financial volatility and is suitable for currencies as well. But these days we have some volatility indexes from many of the investment banks which make it far easier to measure currency volatility and back test ideas.
If you are trading the carry trade then you should be using a volatility filter to greatly improve your results. If you are not trading the carry trade then you are also missing out on some great uncorrelated and relatively easy returns. And finally if you are not macro trading then you are missing out. You should be taking advantage of all the opportunities in the world and not just in stocks. - 23212
They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.
Macro traders have one strategy that most traders never use and that is the currency markets. Long the playground of only banks, currency trading is now available to the masses and is getting better and better. One of the best strategies in currency trading is that of the carry trade.
The carry trade consists of going long a high yielding currency and going short a low yielding currency to fund the trade. You make money in two ways. One is if the initial trade is profitable if the higher yielding currency goes up relative to the low yielder. The other way to earn money is to make money off the carry, or the interest rate differential.
Using leverage you can really juice your returns in the carry trade. For instance if you are earning a three percent yield from the differential then you can earn thirty by being levered up ten times. If you lever up twenty times you will earn sixty percent. While these gains sound great they do come with great risk. You knew this couldn't be that easy.
Nope, simply put juicing things on the way up will kill you on the way down. If volatility is anything but low you will get killed with excessive leverage. Instead you need a good way to track volatility and measure when is a good and a bad time to be in the carry trade.
There are a gazillion ways to measure volatility but some of the best ones are by using an actual volatility index. We have the VIX on the SP500 which is a surprisingly good measure of financial volatility and is suitable for currencies as well. But these days we have some volatility indexes from many of the investment banks which make it far easier to measure currency volatility and back test ideas.
If you are trading the carry trade then you should be using a volatility filter to greatly improve your results. If you are not trading the carry trade then you are also missing out on some great uncorrelated and relatively easy returns. And finally if you are not macro trading then you are missing out. You should be taking advantage of all the opportunities in the world and not just in stocks. - 23212
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macro trading advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by X - Men @ 2:57 AM
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