Understanding the Market Sentiment (Part III)
Economic growth of countries can also have a big impact on the overall currency market sentiment besides the interest rates. When the economy overheats, inflationary pressures increase forcing the Central Banks to increase the interest rates in order to cool the economy. US economy is the key factor in determining the global currency market sentiment. United States is the largest economy in the world. US economic news can and does affect the major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, CHF/USD and JPY/USD.
A strong economic expansion coupled with a healthy labor market tends to boost consumer spending in the country. Good economic growth means low unemployment. Low unemployment means jobs for the people. It helps in selling the stuff produced by the local companies and businesses.
A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract foreign investors. Foreign investment flowing into the country increases the demand for that currency. This increased demand causes that currency to appreciate against other currencies.
How do you measure the economy of a country? Some of the most important indicators of a country economic growth are: 1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 2) The unemployment rate and 3) The trade balance. Lets discuss these three economic indicators.
GDP: A healthy GDP growth rate figure usually adds a bullish sentiment to the currency of that country especially if it exceeds the market expectations. Dont forget the markets tend to react more to surprises. The reaction can be positive or negative depending on the surprise. GDP measures the total good and services that are produced in a particular country in a one year. Actually we will be usually talking about the GDP growth rate that tells whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate is considered to be a positive for the countrys economy and its currency. A low unemployment rate means almost all the consumers have jobs and they are willing to spend more. The more the consumer spends, the more the companies and businesses in the country sell. This generates more output and further expands the economy. The unemployment rate data reports the state of the labor market in the country. The opposite is true for a high unemployment rate. High unemployment means the economy is in recession and many people are without jobs just like the present. Under such conditions, consumer spending decreases. Companies and businesses start laying off more workers and in extreme case go bankrupt when they cant sell their stuff in the markets.
Trade Balance: If a country exports more than it imports, the trade balance is in surplus. If the imports are more than the exports, the country will end up with a trade deficit. This is another widely watched economic indicator in fundamental analysis. Trade deficits are not good. Current account deficit must be balanced by the capital account surplus otherwise a balance of payment problem will ensue.
For example, if US import more from Europe, USD will have to be sold in order to buy Euros to pay for those imports. This will result in the depreciation of USD relative to the Euro and other currencies. The opposite is true in case of a trade surplus. USD will strengthen relative to Euro.
Geopolitical risk is also very important and can cause the currency of a country to move up or down relative to other currencies. Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a countrys foreign or domestic policy affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or the region. - 23212
A strong economic expansion coupled with a healthy labor market tends to boost consumer spending in the country. Good economic growth means low unemployment. Low unemployment means jobs for the people. It helps in selling the stuff produced by the local companies and businesses.
A country with a strong economy is in a better position to attract foreign investors. Foreign investment flowing into the country increases the demand for that currency. This increased demand causes that currency to appreciate against other currencies.
How do you measure the economy of a country? Some of the most important indicators of a country economic growth are: 1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 2) The unemployment rate and 3) The trade balance. Lets discuss these three economic indicators.
GDP: A healthy GDP growth rate figure usually adds a bullish sentiment to the currency of that country especially if it exceeds the market expectations. Dont forget the markets tend to react more to surprises. The reaction can be positive or negative depending on the surprise. GDP measures the total good and services that are produced in a particular country in a one year. Actually we will be usually talking about the GDP growth rate that tells whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate is considered to be a positive for the countrys economy and its currency. A low unemployment rate means almost all the consumers have jobs and they are willing to spend more. The more the consumer spends, the more the companies and businesses in the country sell. This generates more output and further expands the economy. The unemployment rate data reports the state of the labor market in the country. The opposite is true for a high unemployment rate. High unemployment means the economy is in recession and many people are without jobs just like the present. Under such conditions, consumer spending decreases. Companies and businesses start laying off more workers and in extreme case go bankrupt when they cant sell their stuff in the markets.
Trade Balance: If a country exports more than it imports, the trade balance is in surplus. If the imports are more than the exports, the country will end up with a trade deficit. This is another widely watched economic indicator in fundamental analysis. Trade deficits are not good. Current account deficit must be balanced by the capital account surplus otherwise a balance of payment problem will ensue.
For example, if US import more from Europe, USD will have to be sold in order to buy Euros to pay for those imports. This will result in the depreciation of USD relative to the Euro and other currencies. The opposite is true in case of a trade surplus. USD will strengthen relative to Euro.
Geopolitical risk is also very important and can cause the currency of a country to move up or down relative to other currencies. Geopolitical risk refers to the risk of a countrys foreign or domestic policy affecting domestic social and political stability in another country or the region. - 23212
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Get Good Forex Training. Learn Forex Trading!
posted by X - Men @ 1:33 AM
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