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Monday, August 17, 2009

Descending Triangles -Short Trading Strategy

By Jeff Cartridge

Descending triangles are not so popular with traders on the long side and are best traded when it breaks in the downward direction. A descending triangle is defined by two lines, one on the lower boundary of the price movement which is horizontal and one on the upper side which slopes down.

Descending Triangles, One Of The Best

Descending triangles are one of the most predictable patterns that are available to trade short. With 57% of the patterns breaking down descending triangles can deliver good returns when they do. The average gain is 0.92% in 9 days with about half of the breakouts (45%) being profitable. These results are good but selecting the right conditions can make trading descending triangles very attractive.

Specific Setups to Improve Profitability

A break to the downside works better in a falling market or sector environment. By using filters that require the market to be in a consolidation or a down trend you can improve the results. The sector should also be in a down trend for the best results. Strangely a sector that is in a down trend at the beginning of the pattern produces better results than a sector in a down trend when the breakout occurs.

A breakout from a descending triangle can occur anywhere on the way to the point of the pattern; it is not important exactly where the breakout occurs. The best trades occur when a down side break occurs after the stock bounces off the lower boundary and drops back before hitting the upper boundary.

If the volume supports the breakout the results are better. Supportive volume means the volume on the way down is higher than the volume on the way up.

Descending Triangles Extremely Profitable

Incorporating these simple changes when selecting descending triangles to trade short, dramatically improves the results. With an average return per trade of 2.55% in 10 days and a hit rate of 48% descending triangles are one of the most profitable patterns to trade on the short side.

Statistics for this article have been provided by Patterns Trader after analyzing over 60,000 chart patterns on the Australian market from 2000 - 2008. - 23212

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