Global Macro and Commodity Trading
The typical image of the floor of the Mercantile Exchange being filled with a bunch of guys that couldn't get jobs anywhere else is very outdated and wrong. Instead commodity traders are increasingly becoming some of the most sophisticated investors on earth.
The largest group of traders are the upstairs traders, to differentiate them from the floor traders. Inside of the upstairs traders that largest group is that of the systematic long term trend followers. The next biggest group of commodity speculators are the global macro traders.
Some global macro traders are always involved in the commodity markets while others don't actually do a ton of trading. But one thing that all global macro funds do is track and forecast commodity prices. This is so that they have a better grip on raw materials cost as well as where on earth are things growing fast and slow. It basically gives a great picture of the macroeconomic landscape.
For instance if oil is rising like we saw in 2008 then you have to look to see what businesses are going to get hurt and what will benefit from higher oil prices. Obviously oil companies will make more money but what about shorting airlines? Or maybe even going long railroad companies. As you can tell there are endless ideas of who is affected and who is not.
One area that also gets a ton of attention is that of precious metals. Precious metals have a small piece of the industrial machine but mostly are used as an inflation hedge and as an asset backed alternative currency as more and more of the fiat currencies look long term bankrupt.
Industrial metals are also a big deal as almost everything you buy or use has some type of metal in it. Copper for electrical wires, lead for batteries, aluminum for cans, etc. The list is virtually endless and between the MERC, the NYMEX, and the LME you can trade basically all of it. If you aren't tracking industrial metals then you are not pricing out the number one cost for most manufacturing and industrial companies.
While many investors gloss over the agricultural commodities they shouldn't. In the future agricultural commodities will only be increasing in importance as the worlds water supplies continue to diminish. If you are already monitoring demographic trends and overall supply demand you should also be following agricultural commodities.
Obviously commodities are a huge component of the global economy. Not only can you make some great trades in these markets but you can also get a better picture of what will be happening in other asset classes, kind of like the missing pieces of the puzzle. - 23212
The largest group of traders are the upstairs traders, to differentiate them from the floor traders. Inside of the upstairs traders that largest group is that of the systematic long term trend followers. The next biggest group of commodity speculators are the global macro traders.
Some global macro traders are always involved in the commodity markets while others don't actually do a ton of trading. But one thing that all global macro funds do is track and forecast commodity prices. This is so that they have a better grip on raw materials cost as well as where on earth are things growing fast and slow. It basically gives a great picture of the macroeconomic landscape.
For instance if oil is rising like we saw in 2008 then you have to look to see what businesses are going to get hurt and what will benefit from higher oil prices. Obviously oil companies will make more money but what about shorting airlines? Or maybe even going long railroad companies. As you can tell there are endless ideas of who is affected and who is not.
One area that also gets a ton of attention is that of precious metals. Precious metals have a small piece of the industrial machine but mostly are used as an inflation hedge and as an asset backed alternative currency as more and more of the fiat currencies look long term bankrupt.
Industrial metals are also a big deal as almost everything you buy or use has some type of metal in it. Copper for electrical wires, lead for batteries, aluminum for cans, etc. The list is virtually endless and between the MERC, the NYMEX, and the LME you can trade basically all of it. If you aren't tracking industrial metals then you are not pricing out the number one cost for most manufacturing and industrial companies.
While many investors gloss over the agricultural commodities they shouldn't. In the future agricultural commodities will only be increasing in importance as the worlds water supplies continue to diminish. If you are already monitoring demographic trends and overall supply demand you should also be following agricultural commodities.
Obviously commodities are a huge component of the global economy. Not only can you make some great trades in these markets but you can also get a better picture of what will be happening in other asset classes, kind of like the missing pieces of the puzzle. - 23212
About the Author:
If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macro investor advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.
posted by X - Men @ 2:00 AM
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