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Sunday, August 9, 2009

Learning To Use Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

By Ahmad Hassam

Moving averages are a very popular tool among the traders because they are a lagging indicator of the price action. Short and long term trends are easier to identify using moving averages.

Most of the charting software freely provided by the broker can calculate the moving averages on the users specifications. MAs can be formatted to different style of trading and time frames. For example, in case you want to use a 120 time frame moving average, the prices of the last 120 times frames is added together and divided by 120.

A moving average can be calculated based on the opening, high, low or closing price within a time frame. Since the closing price is the most important price, most traders prefer to use the closing price. There are three types of moving averages. First one is the Simple Moving Average. Second is Weighted Moving Average and the third is the exponential moving average.

The simple moving average as the name suggests is simply calculated by dividing the price in each time frame by the number of time frames. A weighted moving average gives more weight to the current prices as compared to the prices in the last few time frames. In an exponentially smoothed moving average, the chart is calculated gradually with less emphasis on the prices in the latter time frames. Exponential moving averages are smoother as compared to the simple.

What are Bollinger Bands? Bollinger bands are plotted at a standard deviation above and below a moving average. The base of a band is moving average and the bands width is determined by volatility. Since standard deviation is a measure of volatility, the bands are self adjusting. Widening during volatile markets and contracting during calmer periods. The bands bracket almost 90% of the market action.

They are curves drawn in and around the price structure that provide relative definitions of high and low. Knowing when the prices are high and low, the trader can make rational investment decisions by comparing price action with the action of indicators.

Bollinger bands can be applied to currency trading, futures, indices, mutual funds and most other trading. Usually sharp price action tends to occur as the bands tighten and as volatility lessens. When the price moves outside the bands, a continuation of current trend is implied.

Bottoms and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and tops made inside the bands call for the reversal of the trend. A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to the other band.

When the bands are flat and narrow, this indicates that price volatility is lower as compared to previous time periods. The 10% price action that takes place outside the bands is most likely going to approximate areas where prices will return to within the bands.

When the bands begin to flare and widen, this indicates increased volatility and start of a new strong trend. Wide bands are usually taken as an indication of a very strong move. - 23212

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