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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Using Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

By Ahmad Hassam

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD pronounced Mac Dee) is one of the most reliable and simple tool in your trading arsenal as a currency trader. MACD is a trend following momentum oscillator or indicator.

MACD shows the relationship between two moving averages of recent prices. It is a lagging indicator. Most technical indicators are lagging which means they are slow. They just tell you what just happened after the fact.

Learning technical analysis is essential for you as a currency trader. Technical analysis is based on the premise that past price action can be used to predict the future prices in the currency markets.

There are many chart types and technical indicators used in the technical analysis. Technical analysis helps you to read your charts. This is the key to understanding the market behavior.

MACD is calculated by subtracting a slow exponential moving average (EMA) from a fast EMA. Signal line is calculated by the taking the EMA of MACD. The Histogram is the difference between the MACD and its signal line.

MACD is one of the most popular technical indicators in currency trading and is used often. However, beware that MACD is often misunderstood and misused resulting in wrong signals. Like any other technical indicator you should use it in conjunction with other technical indicators for confirmation.

In case of Crossovers, when MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish signal. It indicates the time to sell. Conversely, when MACD rises above the signal line, it is a bullish signal. It indicates that it may be time to buy.

Divergence: Divergence takes place when the price diverges from MACD. Divergence indicates the likely end of the current trend. Negative Divergence is when both the price action line and the MACD line are diverging and the price action is rising and MACD is falling. Thats right! The lagging indicator that is supposed to follow the price is predicting future behavior of the prices in the market. It is an indication of the change in the currency trend.

When MACD expands dramatically, this happens when the shorter moving average pulls away from the longer moving average. It is an indication that the currency is overbought/ oversold and may return to normal soon.

One thing should be very clear when you use a MACD. All the above three cases are important and should not be overlooked by you as a currency trader. However, none of them alone are signals for a trade. If you simply start trading on MACD Divergence, it may not yield a profitable trade. MACD Divergence is tradable when confirmed by other indicators.

However, when planned in advance and confirmed by other technical indicators, success is more likely. This is due to the fact that several things are happening at the same time. Each is attracting the same bulls and bears into the trade that you are planning.

When you use MACD, crossovers and dramatic rises are easy to spot. However, spotting MACD divergence comes after a little practice. - 23212

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