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Friday, October 16, 2009

Understanding Fibonacci Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

What is Fibonacci forex? Did you see the movie, The DaVinci Code? You will find a scene in the movie where the characters talk about the Fibonacci number as part of a clue or code of some sort.

The Fibonacci series starts with 0 and 1 and goes out to infinity with the next number in the series being derived by adding the prior two. What are Fibonacci numbers? The Fibonacci number series were made famous by an Italian Leonardo de Pisa. For example, 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 1+2=3, 2+3=5, 3+5=8, 5+8=13, 8+13=21, 13+21=34, 21+34=55, 34+55=89, 55+89=144, 89+144=233, 144+233=377.

What is so fascinating about this series is that there is a constant found within the series as it progresses to infinity. The Fibonacci series is like this; 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377,610, 987..to infinity. This constant is known as the Golden Ratio, Golden Mean or Divine Proportion.

What is so special about the Golden Ratio? You will find the Golden Ratio by dividing the higher number with the lower number by taking any two consecutive numbers in the series after the first few. For example, 89/55=1.618, 144/89=1.618, 233/144=1.618, 377/233=1.618, 610/377=1.618, 987/610=1.618 and so on. Go as higher in the series as you want and you will still find the Golden Ratio by dividing the next higher number with the lower number in the series. The inverse of 1.618 is 0.618. The inverse of the Golden Ratio is also a very important number in Fibonacci trading.

The Golden Ratio can be found in many places in nature like flowers, shells, fossils etc. What is most important to forex traders is that applying these ratios can help identify key support and resistance zone in the market and therefore determine key trading opportunities or setups.

Why use Fibonacci ratios in your trading? The application of Fibonacci ratios can give you the edge as a forex trader if you use the Fibonacci trading technique properly. We have already discussed the Golden Ration 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. The main ratios used in everyday analysis are 0.382, 0.50, 0.618, 0.786, 1.000, 1.272 and 1.618.

Since you are trying to look into a type of technical analysis, it is assumed that you have a computer, a market data source such as quote.com and a technical analysis program to manipulate that data. You should be proficient with the technical analysis program.

The Fibonacci price analysis calculations can be done by hand as well but they are time consuming and tedious. There are three types of Fibonacci price relationship namely, retracements, extensions and price projections (sometimes also called price objectives). We will look into each type of these relationships individually.

Support is when the buying pressure overcomes the selling pressure and the decline in the price is reversed at the support level. The definition of a support is the price area below the current market where you will look for a possible termination of the decline and where you would consider to becoming a buyer of whatever currency pair you are trading. Each of these Fibonacci price relationships will be setting up potential support or potential resistance in the chart that you are analyzing.

Similarly resistance is price where the sellers overcome the buyers and the price starts to decline after reaching a high. It is the price area above the current market where you would look for the possible termination of a rally and consider being a seller. - 23212

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