Backtesting Explained (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Automated Backtesting is easy. The second method of Backtesting is performed manually and visually by the trader. Why would someone do a manual backtest? There are difficulties in doing Backtesting manually but at the same time there are a few advantages of Backtesting. The trader would take the historical data and scroll back in time on a chart and manually apply the trading strategy as if it was in a real time environment.

The trader would advance the chart bar by bar in order to refrain from seeing price action subsequent to the trade at hand. This eliminates trading in hindsight that is detrimental to an objective backtest.

The major disadvantage of Backtesting as compared to automated testing is the significant potential for human error in executing simulated trades and recording performance results.

Emotions are your enemy in trading. When you do manual Backtesting, these emotions can cause problems for your Backtesting results. The normal range of human emotions and biases that often interfere with actual trading can be a detrimental factor in achieving objective backtest results. Furthermore, it takes a great deal of work and discipline to simulate trades manually over a large data set without straying from the strict rules of the trading strategy.

However, Backtesting manually can provide the trader with the real feel for actually trading the strategy. This provides valuable trading experience although simulated but still a valuable trading experience that no automated backtest could possibly provide.

Backtesting can save traders a great deal of time and money that might otherwise had been wasted on trading unprofitable strategies. Backtesting whether done manually or automatically can be one of the most important elements of building a solid trading strategy.

Any mechanical trading system can be backtested. This leads us to the important question of autotrading. Autotrading is the latest fad especially in forex where the number of major currency pairs is only six and this makes programming autotrading easy. These autotrading systems are popularly known as Expert Advisors or Forex Robots.

In contrast, stock autotrading systems can be big more complicated. The US Stock Market has got more than 50,000 stocks listed with them as compared to the forex market where there are not more than six major currency pairs. This makes programming a stock trading robot a bit complicated. However, during the past decade major breakthrough in computer programming has been made.

Backtesting is one of the most important components of testing an autotrading system. Big institutions like banks, corporations and hedge funds have always been taking benefit of these autotrading systems.

Backtesting and autotrading are two important components of implementing trading strategies that generally do not rely upon the trader's judgments or discretion. These types of strategies are primarily technical in nature, and they must necessarily have rules and criteria that are unambiguous.

In contrast, autotrading actually executes real trades automatically according to a pre - programmed set of instructions that sets trade entries, stop losses, and profit limits. Backtesting allows the trader to determine if a given strategy would have been profitable using past price data, which is an indication of how it might potentially perform in the future. - 23212

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account!

The Truth Behind Your Forex Investment

By Bart Icles

Foreign exhange trading is one of the fastest growing investment industries today. It give attractive financial opportunities to almost everyone, may you be part of a large hedge bank or just a sole investor, managing your investments from your very own home office. If you are planning to start your own forex investment, then you better keep in mind that this kind of trading is not a get rich quick scheme. You will need to give your investment enough time to yield positive results that can prove to be worth the wait.

Just because forex investment is not a get rich quick scheme, it does not mean you have no chances of earning from the positions that you will possibly be holding in this volatile market. Unpredictable as it is, you must take the necessary steps and precautions to help you realize millions from your investment, just as how foreign exchange trading is being advertised. You simply need to remember that not everyone can be millionaires in the trading field but there are ways by which you can get your share of the multi-million dollar forex pie.

Changes happen quickly in the forex market so do not expect that you will be able to master the market and trading overnight. You need to give yourself enough time to develop the necessary trading skills, do your own share of internal and external research, and do some trial and error or practice trading before you can start earning profits from your investment.

The get rich quick reputation of maintaining a forex investment most likely stems from the advertisements put up by some forex brokers. Another reason behind this is probably the relatively short time by which the industry has attracted a lot of traders and has generated millions through transactions that take place every single day. The fact that forex trading is a market that can easily be penetrated (you can do so even if you are just trading by yourself from the comfort of your own home) also contributes to its get rich quick image.

However, you must keep in mind that maintaining your forex investment takes more than just clicking on your mouse, browsing foreign exchange websites, and sitting back on your chair while waiting for your investments to bear fruit. You must understand that current events are among the major driving forces behind forex trading so it helps that you consistently get yourself informed. - 23212

About the Author:

A managed forex account starts with a desire to learn and a drive to become a great trader. Learning mini forex trading platform takes dedication and a good teacher. But once you learn how to trade and do so successfully your life will change and you have options and financial resources you never had before.

6 Forex Trading Tips For Trading Success

By Bart Icles

In the forex trading world, more traders are losing than gaining. The reason might be because of not having the right forex education or not having any at all; might also be because of not being disciplined in terms of making calls in their trading activities, or if ever they get the services of forex brokers, the brokers do not really know what they are doing. There are lots of reasons why forex traders fail; there is only one reason for their success. If you want to venture into successful forex trading, the only thing that would propel you to success is by developing a forex trading strategy that would suit your forex trading activities as well as your lifestyle coupled with the right attitude that a forex trader should have, that is, having the self-discipline needed in order to make good forex trading calls.

A great way to be able to develop your own forex trading strategy is through checking out different forex trading tips and doing trial and error with a dummy account. Some of the best forex trading tips are the following:

1. Be sure to be equipped with the right type of forex education in order for you to have the right foundation. A forex education will enable you to have the right start when you venture into the forex trading industry.

2. You should trade not currencies, but pairs. You should be able to know the characteristics of the currency pair that you are going to trade. Making sure that you know what their impacts are on each other will help you determine and make rough calculations on your gains or losses, therefore, helping you make the right calls.

3. Do not be too cautious or too unambitious in trading. Although trading this way can make you earn small profits, in the long run, you will just be losing since you would have a higher risk in not being profitable.

4. If you haven't developed a forex trading strategy yet, make sure that you practice with a dummy account. Be sure, though, that the dummy account that you will be practicing with is close to the real thing to be able to give you the feel of what it would be like to trade in reality.

5. You should be independent in trading at all times. Seek advice from reputable sources, of course, however, you should also be able to analyze the trends and the signals and interpret them to your advantage.

6. Develop confidence in trading. The only way you can do this is to know everything you need to know about the industry and be able to apply them successfully.

The forex trading world is a relatively easy thing to understand and to succeed in, eventually. Do not take shortcuts. Use these forex trading tips to your advantage. - 23212

About the Author:

A forex investment club starts with a desire to learn and a drive to become a great trader. Learning automated forex trading software takes dedication and a good teacher. But once you learn how to trade and do so successfully your life will change and you have options and financial resources you never had before.

Get The Facts Before You Begin Filing Bankruptcy?

By Emma Elvie

Chances are if you are reading this article then you are one of the thousands of people who could definitely use some help improving your credit and finances. In fact chances are you are intrigued about the possibility of liquidating your debts so that you can get a fresh start to life.

Before you even consider filing for bankruptcy there are some things that you need to consider. We all know how easy it is to make rash decisions especially when there are finances concerned; while bankruptcy will allow you to get that much needed start to life the truth is have you sat down to consider all your options?

This decision is going to require that you sit down and take a long hard look at all your finances to find out what your options may be. It may be that you can do something as simple as refinancing that will lower your monthly payments and that alone can get you out of your financial bind.

You have to first find out where all your money is going and why you are struggling with this issue. Most people do not realize why they are constantly broke and they wonder why they are suffering from this problem. Once you are able to determine where your money is going each month then you will be able to take the necessary steps to resolve your situation.

If you are like most people who are spending too much money on things that you really do not need then now is the time to down size. You will realize that just by downsizing you will find yourself saving more money on a monthly basis. If that still does not help you save money on a monthly basis then you may want to consider getting a second job to help you until you get back on your feet.

Be sure to visit our site below for more valuable tips and advice about filing bankruptcy and what you can do to avoid it. You will find all the information that we provide valuable and if used correctly can help you going down this financial ruin. - 23212

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Bankruptcy Alternatives Do You Know About This? Declaring Bankruptcy

How To Write Covered Calls

By Mike Smith

It is amazing to me that not many retail investors understand the concept of generating cash flow from their stock positions. When I tell people that I utilize covered calls to generate extra income, hedge my stock positions, and set strict sell disciplines they look at me like I am crazy. I was introduced to the concept from a stockbroker. The idea of writing covered calls is the only option strategy that you can employ at most of the major brokerage firms for your IRA investments. The reason is that writing covered calls is a very conservative strategy relative to other option strategies.

Covered call writing is very simple to understand. It basically says that I'll give you $5,000 now, if you allow me to buy your stock 3 months from now at a certain price. If I choose not to exercise this option, you keep the money and we part.

Now I will go into more detail. Do not worry, just keep re-reading this until you get it. I buy 1,000 shares of FGH at $10 and the stock goes to $11 several weeks later. I can make money right now without selling my stock by selling the option to someone to buy the stock from me six months from now at $12.50. For that option, the buyer has agreed to give me $0.50 per share or $500 right now.

The cool thing is that I get the $500 immediately deposited into my brokerage account. The option position now shows up on my brokerage statement. I must not sell the stock prior to six months unless I buy back the option at the current market price. I usually hold my stocks until expiration because of how much the option price fluctuates from day to day.

Six months from now, two things can happen. First, the stock can go above $12.50 and the buyer of the option "calls" me out of the position which I happily do since I bought the stock at $10. The second thing that can happen is that the stock falls below $12.50 and the option holder is holding on to a worthless option. No option holder is going to "call" you out of the stock if it is $12.50 when he can buy the stock in the open market for $11.50 a share.

After the call expires, I then start all over again by writing another call again.

Are you beginning to see how cool this strategy is? Here is what I just accomplished. First of all, I lowered my cost basis by 5% or $500. Secondly, I drew a line in the sand and said this is what I'm willing to sell the shares for, $12.50. Third, I generated instant income that I could use for Christmas or just reinvest.

I can not tell you how happy this strategy has made me since the crash of 2000-2001. The strategy has helped me keep my head above water in this depressing market.

A good friend of mine is a computer programmer. He also shares a passion for covered call writing and has written a program that is in beta testing. I am his BETA Dummy. So far, the program has saved me countless hours of research and has narrowed my focus to a short list of 5-10 natural resource stocks to add to my portfolio quarterly. In future articles, I'll discuss some of my picks and income generated from the covered call strategy, plus provide a link to the option software.

But remember, any option strategy involves more risk than just buying a stock so always consult with a licensed financial adviser first. - 23212

About the Author:

Do not buy any stock trading education materials until you see Lance Jepsen's free stock market blog at how to invest in stock market, and learning the stock market