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Friday, December 18, 2009

How to do Stock Trend Analysis

By Brian Berry

I can recall well enough what it was like trying to get started with Stock Trend Analysis. The learning curve was tormenting on occasion. I recall regardless of what I picked up, I didn't realize quite enough to put it into practice. Over time with some serious tenaciousness I became sure-handed enough to start netting some real money in the stock market.

My own challenge to gaining skill was there are so many well meaning people willing to extend advice and so many resources online for technical descriptions of assorted indicators, but nothing I picked up seemed to help me realize how all these indicator definitions and macroeconomic data fit together to build a whole understanding of technical trading. I I can save you some time and lots of frustration with this convenient little guide.

An overview of technical analysis.

I imagine if you are interested in technical analysis sufficiency to read this far, you are already familiar with how the stock market functions and how to purchase and trade stocks. I hope so because it is a requirement. Bear in mind this is an casual overview of the learning path many traders, myself included have taken to understand Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis - Fundamental Topics. What is Technical Analysis? For the unaware, there are two leading sorts of Stock Analysis.

Technical and Fundamental Analysis Although the two are not contradictory, traders tend to favor one over the other. Fundamental Analysis looks at a company s assets, debt, earnings and cash flow. It gives the analyst a clear characterization of a company's health. When an analysis of one company is equated to its equals (groups of companies in the same business) it presents hints about possible failings and strengths of the company. Its also usable in assessing a company's overall prospects for growth.

Technical Analysis looks to take advantage of the mass knowledge of open market participants (other traders) who are by-and-large Fundamental Analysts. Technical Analysis is at its heart an analysis of supply and demand. So, lets discover precisely how Technical Analysts use the market as their guide on trading markets.

A Simple Technical Analysis Example: Price Speaks Volumes First, realize that Price and Volume are both technical indicators. Price being naturally the central indicator over any other. Each time a stock price moves up it bespeaks a vote of optimism by all players. Sellers stood firm for a higher price than the prevalent rate and buyers stepped in and bought at that price anyway. Sellers holding out for more money while buyers step in to pay the difference between the market and asking price shows market optimism.

Volume is the amount of shares traded over time. Technical traders look at price and volume together to estimate how optimistic or bearish buyers and sellers are and possibly are becoming. An increase in volume across a given time-frame indicates increasing involvement and hence conviction that prices will go on to travel in the ongoing direction. Whereas, when volume starts to decline it is an indicator that market participants are losing their strong belief that prices will remain in their current direction.

When volume is increasing along with prices, participants anticipate prices to proceed to climb. Technical traders speculate that prices will increase so long as volume is better than normal. If prices continue to go up while at the same time volume starts to drop, the participants are voting with less shares. This condition is a form of technical breakdown.

Typical Volume Based Price Breakdown. One more phenomenon to consider is that once price direction changes, volume may begin to grow, once again corroborating the conviction of market participants of the new price direction. When an indicator such as volume starts to correspond with the price direction, this is known as a variety of price confirmation.

Technical Analysis Indicators Apart from the simple indicators of price and volume, there are countless indicators and more are produced every day. An indicator can often be something as simple as a moving average or far more complex. As you've witnessed already, indicators are an potent piece of understanding and forecasting market action. All technical analysis indicators fit two different families.

It is important to observe that market circumstances dictate which form you will use, but never ignore price. Indicators are forecasters, but price speaks volumes, only prices are reality.

Leading indicators are applied in sideways markets. Leading indicators react before price does. Most leading indicators seek to register shifts in the strength or force of price movement, or momentum. Leading indicators are useful to help traders anticipate price moves because they can express the strength or weakness of prices at their current level. Leading indicators do not do well as buy/sell indicators in steadily trending markets (up or down) because they indicate changes in momentum. They do well in biased markets and give traders accurate signals about when to buy or sell.

Some useful leading indicators include Momentum, Stochastic and the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The RSI (leading indicator flags the overbought condition).

Lagging Indicators / Trend Following Indicators Use in trending markets (moving up / moving down).

Lagging indicators follow price moves. A moving average is a simplified kind of lagging indicator. Lagging indicators are frequently employed when the markets are in a very good trend. They rapidly show traders the popular direction of a stock price. They can send phony signals in markets that are trading at parity / proceeding sideways. Their better use is in trending markets because they can distinctly show traders when to get in and how long to remain.

The most popular lagging Indicators include Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The moving average is a Trend Following Indicator.

Technical Analysis Understanding time frames. In Technical Analysis, indicators are insignificant without understanding them in the context of time. Indicators, leading and lagging both use time and price as the very basis of any formula. It may help to consider time frames as magnification of detail. If you consider a one year weekly chart and zoom into a one year daily chart, you are straightaway aware that you can see price action in deeper detail. Likewise traveling from a one year daily chart to a three month daily chart affords even greater detail of the price activity.

More about time frames in technical analysis: Screening multiple time frames exposes greater detail.

What kind of trader are you? Do you buy into a trade and then watch impatiently at every tick in the stock price? Or are you more of a set it and forget it kind of trader who monitors the price every few days or weeks? Maybe your style is somewhere in between? Why is this critical and what does it have to do with time frames? read on.

The Day Trader Day Traders quickly buy and sell stocks multiple times a day to attempt to lock up quick winnings. The Day Trader breaks down chart patterns and indicators which may span only a few hours or even a few minutes. Day trading is a risky line of work where great sums are acquired or lost in plain seconds. Day Traders pay precise attention to tick-by-tick price information as it appears on their screen in real time.

Under FINRA and NYSE rules, a trader once flagged and classified as a pattern day trader, must keep up a $25,000 account balance must obtain a margin account. For more info on day trading refer to the FINRA Notice to Members and the NYSE Information Memo.

The Active Trader - Momentum Trader Although there is no standard definition as with the Day Trader, the Active Trader looks for trends that cross from a few months to as little as a few days. A typical trade for an Active Trader trader can be really short, perhaps a day or may last for some months as long as the underway trend is intact.

Active Trader Strategy - The Swing Trader Although the strategy used by the swing trader is very similar to that of the Active Trader, the central departure is that the swing trader looks to maximize gains by capitalizing of the normal downswings in an broad upwards trending stock. The Swing Trader cycles in and out of the trade repeatedly until the broad trend softens before making a last exit. Swing traders must watch the price activity more frequently than the active momentum trader since the swing trade requires frequent attention. - 23212

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Making Trash Into Good Properties

By Billy Chen

Real estate investing means different things to different people. Some real estate investors invest in property that needs to be "rehabbed". By rehabbing or fixing up a house or property, they then sell it for a profit.

This is only one of the ways of real estate investing.This can range from buying a one family home to investing in property such as high rise buildings, resort areas and other sorts of real estate that can be sold for a profit.

Some of the richest people in the world make their living from real estate investments that have been carefully chosen. This is a way of making money and is just as valued as an investment as the stock market or foreign currency.By taking real estate and upgrading it, you then sell it for a profit, or rent it out so a renter, you make a financial gain.

For example, you buy a house that needs to be rehabbed.These investments are then either upgraded fully or some changes will be made to the property in question to increase its value to a potential customer. You then fix the house up and then sell it.

Now some people invest in rental properties, such as rental homes, motels, hotels and the like. This is what a real estate investor does.This investor looks over property carefully and chooses the property that he or she thinks will be the best investment property.

These commercial properties then take on a new look in order to attract customers if one owns a hotel, or a nice house for a rental property. There is also land investment that is made. This is land that will increase in value such as farmland or land that can be developed into a profitable piece of property.

The decision is made then as to what the property is supposed to do. The range of real estate investments is varies and depends upon the personal taste of the person doing the investment.Real estate is looked over and a client chooses a property to upgrade or to hold onto for future development.

Then the investment is taken care of until a certain time when the investment is to be changed into a money making opportunity. Then the property undergoes a transformation into a beautiful place that will make the owner money.

This is why real estate investing is so popular. There is risk but there is reward as well. Real estate investors are all over the world and invest in many different places and ventures in real estate.

This is the entire idea behind real estate investing. With so many properties to choose from, someone would be hard pressed to not find something that will make them a handsome profit in the world of real estate investing.That is why a real estate investment is made.The investor invests his or her money into something that will make them money. - 23212

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ETF Trading System For Beginners - System Rules

By Patrick Deaton

As you start looking at systems, strategies, and methods, you're going to look for the one that will best meet your needs. There are some traders that don't feel an ETF trading system is necessary, they begin trading without any real strategy or plan and shoot from the hip on most of their trades. So, you might wonder if you need a system at all.

The Turtle ETF trading system was an experiment that was conducted in'83. Richard Dennis and Michael Eckhardt wanted to find out if people who had not experience with ETF trading could learn, and be successful in trading following a simple strategy.

This experiment was very informative. The structure of an ETF trading system lies in the rules of the system. Step A moves to Step B, etc. Most systems are very simple and have the same rules for entry, what the trader needs to follow, and exit.

Most systems have two elements, one is trend following and the other is vector rotation. While an ETF trading system may sound successful and doable, if a person does not want to follow trends, they are not likely to follow the rules of a system that involves trend following.

The individuals who participated in the Turtle experiment showed average annual returns of up to 80%. These individuals follows the rules set up by Eckhardt and Dennis strictly and did not deviate. But, there were/are flaws in the system. For that reason, there have been many hybrids of the Turtle ETF trading system developed and introduced over the years.

When selecting a system you will want to fully understand the structure and rules that make the system effective. To see consistent gains from a system, it must be followed and paired with the strategy that will maximize its effectiveness. It must also be used in the right sectors. The effectiveness of a system in one ETF may be seriously different when used in another sector.

Most traders are using different systems simultaneously. One ETF trading system may work great with a vector, while the same system will be ineffective for another vector. Studying the effectiveness of a system for the vector you are trading in will allow you to make knowledgeable decisions about which systems and strategies to employ with your ETF trading.

The better you understand a system, the easier it is to set realistic goals. Setting buy and sell limits is the safety net for any system or strategy that is being used for the first time. Knowing the history of the ETF trading system will help to plan an exit strategy based on the trends of the sector that is being followed.

Discussing different strategies and their effectiveness with other traders and professionals will also be beneficial. By doing the research and homework before investing in the trades using an ETF trading system, you will be able to find the best system for you. When a system sounds good, but the rules of the system are not what your personality would follow, it is best to find a system that is more compatible with your personality. - 23212

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Gaining An Appreciation For The ETF Trading System

By Patrick Deaton

Understanding what makes up an ETF trading system will be necessary for those who are considering participating in trading through an exchange traded fund. These funds can be a great way to invest in the markets and, if one has some smarts, some patience and even a bit of daring make a good income. Remember, though, this is just like any other investment in the markets and that it could be lost.

ETFs are similar to mutual funds in the way that they are constituted. Additionally, it can help to think of ETF's somewhat as corporate stocks are in the way they are bought and sold. Investing through an ETF is a great way to keep a handle on investment costs because those costs are generally very reasonable in an ETF. As well, tracking of taxes is relatively easy.

Generally speaking, most ETF's are pretty much impossible for the small, non-institutional investor to get involved in. Most ETF's allow only authorized participants -- meaning institutional investors, usually -- to buy and sell in the ETF directly to and from the ETF's manager. However, there is a way for the small investor to get involved in ETF and that's through a trading system.

Fortunately, there are a lot of exchange traded fund trading systems that exist online through which a small investor can begin participating in the ETF trading day activities. Starting capital requirements to participate in these trading systems are generally reasonable, and usually require only a few thousand dollars. ETF trading systems substitute, in a way, as an institutional investor.

All ETF's track one of the market indexes as a way of tying their activities to markets. As an example, many exchange traded funds look at the S&P 500 as the major index to track alongside, which allows investors to time or gauge their trading activities in an efficient and productive manner. Sometimes, investors in the trading system tracked minute by minute changes in an index.

Keep in mind that just about every ETF trading system has certain rules that an investor who wishes to enter into the system must adhere to. Many ETF's share similarities in how they track markets, also. One popular way is through what the industry calls "trend following." It's safe to say that this is probably one of the most popular ways trading systems use to operate.

Probably, tracking trends and then timing the markets is the most common way that investors and ETF trading systems try to make their money. Remember that most trading activity needs to be settled in the trading system by the end of day (EOD) much as in the same way that daytraders have to settle up all of their trades. Study the rules laid out by each system before deciding to invest capital.

For a small investor who has a limited amount of starting capital and who wants to get in on the possibility of making real and defined income by trading in exchange traded funds, and ETF trading system is probably the single best way of doing so. Costs are attractively low, as are the efficiencies and tracking of taxes that may result. Additionally, there's plenty of training available for those thinking of participating. - 23212

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Fundamental Analysis - The Essentials About Fundamental Analysis

By Prema Laga

The forex trading industry contains forex traders breaking down the markets through a multitude of ways and steps. The steps fit in to one of three groups :- Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis and a combination of both methods. Though all 3 steps hold their good points, a forex trader that has a good perception about both technical plus fundamental analysis main beliefs by and large is able to achieve a enhanced picture from the forex markets.

Fundamental analysis is dealing with the factors that influence a certain currency. The factors that drive currencies are all economic plus political in nature. This is the crucial grounds of why the forex markets act in response to economic information such as the retail sales, unemployment rates in addition to non farm payrolls. Despite the fact that the economic circumstances about a nation exceedingly affects the movement of a particular currency, the internal political situation frequently does move currencies with great effect. Nationwide disease, natural disasters for example floods and earthquakes as well as political turmoil can all drive a currency and are noticed in fundamental analysis. Therein lies the problem with fundamental analysis. This discipline needs a great awareness of macroeconomics, microeconomics in addition to market sentiment to properly benefit from it.

Central banks and the monetary policies they apply have a great influence on the forex markets. How the markets react to such policies is commonly the same despite of what central bank you are concerned with.

These factors will finally affect the decisions made by the fundamental trader. Interest rates plus international trade all very vital essentials to take in as well.

The release of economic data that make an impact can generally be viewed if the markets react swiftly to it. Volatile currencies such as the pound/yen can experiences spikes upwards of 100 pips if the data had a big impact.

Occasionally the markets can spike on both directions on after another. A hundred pips up in addition to a hundred pips the other way in a matter of seconds. Predominantly when dealing with volatile currencies like the Pound/Yen.

As this article does not seek to encompass the full matter on a single page, we have elected to cover just the basics of fundamental analysis. In depth guides on the subject matter will further sharpen the skills of any fundamental trader. Always keep an eye on economic data releases as they always have an impact on the markets.

Economic calendars can be located in a variety of websites but the staff at i-Forex-Trading.com recommend the excellent calendar provided by the popular forex forum, www.forexfactory.com. - 23212

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